### The embarrassment of false predictions - How to best communicate probabilities?

Complex predictions such as election forecasts or the weather reports often have to be simplified before communication. In astronomical data analysis, researchers are also confronted with the problem of simplifying probabilities. Two researchers at the MPA now show that there is only one mathematically correct way to measure how embarrassing a simplified prediction can be. According to this, the recipient of a prediction should be deprived of the smallest possible amount of information.